\nMathematically, leverage is based on the win expectancy work done by Keith Woolner in BP 2005, and is defined as the change in the probability of winning the game from scoring (or allowing) one additional run in the current game situation divided by the change in probability from scoring\n(or allowing) one run at the start of the game.'); jpfl_definitions[19] = new Array('apw', 'Adjusted Pitcher Wins. Thorn and Palmer\'s method for calculating a starter\'s value in wins. Included for comparison with SNVA. APW values here calculated using runs instead of earned runs.'); jpfl_definitions[20] = new Array('snlva/g', 'Support Neutral Lineup-adjusted Value Added (SNVA adjusted for the MLVr of batters faced) per game pitched.'); jpfl_definitions[21] = new Array('dp_opps', 'The number of double play opportunities (defined as less than two outs with runner(s) on first, first and second, or first second and third).'); jpfl_definitions[22] = new Array('dp%', 'The percentage of double play opportunities turned into actual double plays by a pitcher or hitter.'); jpfl_definitions[23] = new Array('win%', 'Winning percentage. For teams, Win% is determined by dividing wins by games played. For pitchers, Win% is determined by dividing wins by total decisions. '); jpfl_definitions[24] = new Array('e(win%)', 'Expected winning percentage for the pitcher, based on how often\na pitcher with the same innings pitched and runs allowed in each individual\ngame earned a win or loss historically in the modern era (1972-present).'); jpfl_definitions[25] = new Array('attrition rate', 'Attrition Rate is the percent chance that a hitter\'s plate appearances or a pitcher\'s opposing batters faced will decrease by at least 50% relative to his Baseline playing time forecast. Although it is generally a good indicator of the risk of injury, Attrition Rate will also capture seasons in which his playing time decreases due to poor performance or managerial decisions. '); jpfl_definitions[26] = new Array('avg', 'Batting average (hitters) or batting average allowed (pitchers).'); jpfl_definitions[27] = new Array('avgnp', 'Average number of pitches per start.'); jpfl_definitions[28] = new Array('avgpap', 'Average Pitcher Abuse Points per game started.'); jpfl_definitions[29] = new Array('b1', 'Singles or singles allowed.'); jpfl_definitions[30] = new Array('ba', 'Batting average; hits divided by at-bats.'); jpfl_definitions[31] = new Array('ball%', 'Percentage of pitches thrown for balls.'); jpfl_definitions[32] = new Array('baseline', 'The Baseline forecast, although it does not appear here, is a crucial intermediate step in creating a player\'s forecast. The Baseline developed based on the player\'s previous three seasons of performance. Both major league and (translated) minor league performances are considered.
The Baseline forecast is also significant in that it attempts to remove luck from a forecast line. For example, a player who hit .310, but with a poor batting eye and unimpressive speed indicators, is probably not really a .310 hitter. It\'s more likely that he\'s a .290 hitter who had a few balls bounce his way, and the Baseline attempts to correct for this.
\nSimilarly, a pitcher with an unusually low EqHR9 rate, but a high flyball rate, is likely to have achieved the low EqHR9 partly as a result of luck. In addition, the Baseline corrects for large disparities between a pitcher\'s ERA and his PERA, and an unusually high or low hit rate on balls in play, which are highly subject to luck. '); jpfl_definitions[33] = new Array('batout', 'Approximate number of batting outs made while playing this position.'); jpfl_definitions[34] = new Array('batting average', 'Batting average; hits divided by at-bats. In PECOTA, Batting Average is one of five primary production metrics used in identifying a hitter\'s comparables. It is defined as H/AB. '); jpfl_definitions[35] = new Array('bb', 'Bases on Balls (also known as walks), or bases on balls allowed.'); jpfl_definitions[36] = new Array('bb9', 'Bases on balls allowed per 9 innings pitched.'); jpfl_definitions[37] = new Array('bfp', 'Batters faced pitching.'); jpfl_definitions[38] = new Array('bk', 'Balks. Not recorded 1876-1880.'); jpfl_definitions[39] = new Array('pipp', 'Player Injury Projection Probabilities. This is the name for the rating system that underlies the Team Health Reports. The name was submitted by reader braden23 in honor of Wally Pipp, who may have the most famous injury in all of baseball history.'); jpfl_definitions[40] = new Array('brarp', 'Batting runs above a replacement at the same position. A replacement position player is one with an EQA equal to (230/260) times the average EqA for that position.'); jpfl_definitions[41] = new Array('breakout rate', 'Breakout Rate is the percent chance that a hitter\'s EqR/27 or a pitcher\'s EqERA will improve by at least 20% relative to the weighted average of his EqR/27 in his three previous seasons of performance. High breakout rates are indicative of upside risk.Breakout rates measure change relative to a player\'s previously-established level of performance. For this reason, a high Breakout score can create a falsely optimistic picture for a player who has a very poor performance record. It is far easier for a player with a baseline of 40 EqR per season to improve upon that figure by 20% than it is for a player with a baseline of 100 EQR per season; as a result, his Breakout score is likely to be higher (see also Ugueto Effect).'); jpfl_definitions[42] = new Array('gb%', 'Groundball Percentage. The number of groundballs that a pitcher allows as a percentage of all balls hit into play. Our definition of GB% does not count line drives or popups as groundballs, and considers all batted balls put into play, not just those that result in outs. Because of this defintion, the league average GB% is somewhat lower than than what may be listed in other venues, or about 44%.'); jpfl_definitions[43] = new Array('snva/g', 'Support Neutral Value Added (wins above average added by the pitcher\'s performance) per game pitched.'); jpfl_definitions[44] = new Array('bs', 'Blown Saves. Occurs when a pitcher comes into the game in a save situation and surrenders the lead at any point during his appearance. The runners that score may be inherited from another pitcher, but the blown save is still charged to the pitcher who allowed them to score. Assigned for both closers and middle relievers.'); jpfl_definitions[45] = new Array('cg', 'Complete Games.'); jpfl_definitions[46] = new Array('collapse rate', 'For hitters, Collapse Rate is the percent chance that the player\'s EqR/27 will decrease by at least 20% relative to the weighted average of his EqR/27 in his three previous seasons of performance. For pitchers, Collapse Rate is the percent chance that a pitcher\'s EqERA will increase by at least 25% relative to his baseline EqERA over his past three seasons. High Collapse Rates are indicative of downside risk. '); jpfl_definitions[47] = new Array('comparable players', 'Comparable Players are the backbone of a player\'s PECOTA. Only the twenty best comparables are listed here, but as many as 100 players may be used in the generation of his forecast if they are sufficiently comparable. \n\n
PECOTA compares each player against a database of roughly 20,000 major league batter seasons since World War II. In addition, it also draws upon a database of roughly 15,000 translated minor league seasons (1997-2006) for players that spent most of their previous season in the minor leagues. (When minor league comparables are used, they appear in ALL CAPS). \n\nPECOTA considers four broad categories of attributes in determining a hitter\'s comparability: \n
1. Production metrics--such as batting average, isolated power, and unintentional walk rate for hitters, or strikeout rate and groundball rate for pitchers.
2. Usage metrics, including career length and plate appearances or innings pitched.
3. Phenotypic attributes, including handedness, height, weight, career length (for major leaguers), and minor league level (for prospects).
4. Fielding Position (for hitters) or starting/relief role (for pitchers). PECOTA doesn\'t require that a comparable hitter play the same defensive position; it is a factor that is evaluated along with many others, and assigned a relatively substantial weight. Consideration is also given to the \'similarity\' between two positions; for example, a shortstop will be compared to a second baseman before he is compared to a left fielder. \n\n\nIn most cases, the database is large enough to provide a meaningfully large set of appropriate comparables. When it isn\'t, the program is designed to \'cheat\' by expanding its tolerance for dissimilar players until a reasonable sample size is reached.'); jpfl_definitions[48] = new Array('jaws', 'Abbreviation for "Jaffe WARP Score." System invented by Jay Jaffe to assess a player\'s worthiness for enshrinement in the Hall of Fame. Equal to the average of a player\'s peak WARP and total career WARP.'); jpfl_definitions[49] = new Array('2007 forecast', 'See Percentile Forecast.'); jpfl_definitions[50] = new Array('percentile forecast', 'The Percentile Forecast is a representation of the player\'s expected performance in the upcoming season at various levels of probability.\nFor example, if a pitcher\'s 75th percentile EqERA forecast is 3.50, this indicates that he has a 75% chance to post an EqERA of 3.50 or higher, and a 25% chance to post an EqERA lower than 3.50. Higher percentiles indicate more favorable outcomes.
\nThe Percentile Forecast is calibrated off two key statistics: EqA for hitters, and EqERA for pitchers.\nPECOTA runs a series of regressions within the set of comparable data in order to estimate how changes in peripheral statistics are related to changes in equivalent runs. For example, if it first estimates that Carl Crawford will produce a .290 EqA next year, it then tries to determine what home run total, walk total, and so on are most likely to be associated with a .290 EqA season.\nPECOTA then iterates this result to ensure that the peripheral statistics \'add up\' to the right calibrating statistic (EqA or EqERA). It is important to note that the Percentile Forecast is designed to work around the calibrating statistic only. \nA player\'s forecast is adjusted to the park and league context associated with the team listed at the top of the forecast page. Team dependant stats like Wins, RBIs, and BABIP account for the projected performance level of a player\'s teammates
\nPECOTA forecasts playing time (plate appearances) in addition to a player\'s rate statistics. These forecasts are based on a player\'s previous record of performance, and the comparable player data, and do not incorporate any additional information about managerial decisions.\n'); jpfl_definitions[51] = new Array('comparable year', 'Comparable Year represents the season analogous to the current projected year for a comparable player. For example, if Dick Allen is listed as a comparable, and the year listed next to his name is 1974, Allen\'s 1974 is used as a component of the player\'s forecast. It also indicates that Allen\'s Baseline performance entering into the 1974 season was similar to the Baseline performance of the player in question.PECOTA constructs a 182-day interval on either side of a player\'s birthdate in order to match ages; this method is more precise than the Bill James similarity scores, which use a player\'s age as of July 1. ');
jpfl_definitions[52] = new Array('cs', 'Caught stealing. CS are not available for the NL from 1876-1950 (except for 1915, 1920-25, and some players for 1916), in the AL from 1901-19 (except 1914-15 and some 1916 players), and are not available at all for the AA, UA, PL, or FL. Surprisingly, they are available for the NA. In catcher\'s fielding, not available prior to 1978.');
jpfl_definitions[53] = new Array('d1', 'Delta between actual wins and W1. Positive number means the team has won more games than expected from their statistics.');
jpfl_definitions[54] = new Array('d2', 'Delta between actual wins and W2. Positive number means the team has won more games than expected from their statistics.');
jpfl_definitions[55] = new Array('d3', 'Delta between actual wins and W3. Positive number means the team has won more games than expected from their statistics.');
jpfl_definitions[56] = new Array('def eff', 'Def Eff, or Defensive Efficiency, is the rate at which balls put into play are converted into outs by a team\'s defense. Def Eff can be approximated with (1 - BABIP), if all you have is BABIP, but a team\'s actual Def Eff is computed with
\n1 - ((H + ROE - HR) / (PA - BB - SO - HBP - HR))\n
the Team Audit Standings use the latter formula.');
jpfl_definitions[57] = new Array('delta-h', 'The number of hits above or below average for this pitcher, based on his own number of balls in play and his team\'s rate of hits (minus home runs) per ball in play; (H-HR) - BIP * (team (H-HR)/BIP). Essentially, the Voros McCracken number. For a team, Delta-H should be zero. Positive numbers signify more hits allowed than expected ("bad luck," if you believe pitchers have nothing to do with the outcome of a BIP), negative numbers mean fewer hits than expected ("good luck").');
jpfl_definitions[58] = new Array('delta-r', 'The number of runs, more or less, that a pitcher allowed, compared to his statistics. The pitcher\'s statistics (such as hits, walks, home runs) are run through a modified version of the equivalent runs formula to get estimated runs. Again, positive is "bad luck," negative is "good luck."');
jpfl_definitions[59] = new Array('delta-w', 'The number of wins, more or less, that a pitcher won, compared to estimated wins. Estimated wins are derived from the pitcher\'s actual runs allowed and team average run scoring. Here, a positive number is "good luck," negative is "bad luck."');
jpfl_definitions[60] = new Array('dera', 'Defense-adjusted ERA. Not to be confused with Voros McCracken\'s Defense-Neutral ERA. Based on the PRAA, DERA is intended to be a defense-independent version of the NRA. As with that statistic, 4.50 is average. Note that if DERA is higher than NRA, you can safely assume he pitched in front of an above-average defense.');
jpfl_definitions[61] = new Array('diagnostics', 'Diagnostics are a series of metrics designed to estimate the probability of certain types of changes in production and playing time; see the individual entries for additional detail. ');
jpfl_definitions[62] = new Array('difficulty adjustment', 'Each league has been given a difficulty level, based on the performance of players in that league compared to the same players\' performance in other seasons. The reference difficulty level was defined by the trend line of the National League from 1947 to 2002, and extended backwards to 1871. The difficulty adjustment is the ratio between the actual difficulty level and the reference level.');
jpfl_definitions[63] = new Array('dp', 'Double plays, turned or hit into.');
jpfl_definitions[64] = new Array('drop rate', 'Drop Rate is the percent chance that a player will not receive any major league plate appearances in a given season, based on comparables who disappear from the dataset entirely. Because of the conventions PECOTA uses in selecting comparables, the Drop Rate is always assumed to be zero for the current year, but it is an important consideration in a hitter\'s Five-Year Forecast. ');
jpfl_definitions[65] = new Array('e', 'Errors.');
jpfl_definitions[66] = new Array('e(w)', 'Expected win record for the pitcher, based on how often pitchers with the same innings pitched and runs allowed earned a win or loss historically (this differs from how it was computed, which was a more complicated, theoretical calculation).');
jpfl_definitions[67] = new Array('e(l)', 'Expected loss record for the pitcher, based on how often pitchers with the same innings pitched and runs allowed earned a win or loss historically (this differs from how it was computed, which was a more complicated, theoretical calculation).');
jpfl_definitions[68] = new Array('eqa', 'Equivalent Average. A measure of total offensive value per out, with corrections for league offensive level, home park, and team pitching. EQA considers batting as well as baserunning, but not the value of a position player\'s defense. The EqA adjusted for all-time also has a correction for league difficulty. The scale is deliberately set to approximate that of batting average. League average EqA is always equal to .260.
\n\nEqA is derived from Raw EqA, which is
\n\nRawEqA =(H+TB+1.5*(BB+HBP+SB)+SH+SF-IBB/2)/(AB+BB+HBP+SH+SF+CS+SB)
\n\nAny variables which are either missing or which you don\'t want to use can simply be ignored (be sure you ignore it for both the individual and league, though). You\'ll also need to calculate the RawEqa for the entire league (LgEqA).
\n\nConvert RawEqA into EqR, taking into account the league EqA LgEqA, league runs per plate appearance, the park factor PF, an adjustment pitadj for not having to face your own team\'s pitchers, and the difficulty rating. Again, you can ignore some of these as the situation requires. xmul can simply be called "2", while the PF, diffic, and pitadj can be set to "1".
\n\n xmul=2*(.125/PF/Lg(R/PA)/pitadj)
\n EQAADJ=xmul*(RawEqa/LgEqa)* ((1+1/diffic)/2) + (1-xmul)
\n UEQR=EQAADJ*PA*Lg(R/PA)
\n\nTo get the final, fully adjusted EqA, we need to place this into a team environment.
\n\nThis is an average team:
\n AVGTM=Lg(R/Out)*Lg(Outs/game)*PF*Games*(DH adjustment)
\n\nThe DH adjustment is for playing in a league with a DH. "Games" is the number of games played by this player.
\n\nReplacing one player on the average team with our test subject:
\n TMPLUS=AVGTM+UEQR-OUT*Lg(R/Out)*DH*PF
\n\nGet pythagorean exponent
\n pyexp=((TMPLUS+AVGTM)/Games)**.285
\n\nCalculate win percentage
\n WINPCT=((TMPLUS/AVGTM)**pyexp)/(1+(TMPLUS/AVGTM)**pyexp)
\n\nConvert into adjusted space, where the Pythagorean exponent is set to 2.
\n NEWTM=(WINPCT/(1-WINPCT))**(1/2)
\n\nFully adjusted EqR:
\n EQR=.17235*((NEWTM-1)*27.*Games + Outs)
\n\nFully adjusted EqA
\n EQA= (EQR/5/Outs)** 0.4\n\n'); jpfl_definitions[69] = new Array('eqa distribution', 'Also known as a BSP chart, an acronym for bloodstain spatter pattern, which these graphs seem to bear an eerie resemblance toward. The BSP charts plot a rate performance statistic (EqA or EqERA) on the one axis and playing time on the other (PA or IP). Each of the diamonds you see represents the performance implied by one of a player’s comparables; the higher the similarity score for that comparable, the larger the size of the diamond. There is also an area of the chart shaded in a yellow color; this is the ‘golden zone’ of performance in which a player both performs well (an EqA of .300 or higher) and remains in the lineup frequently (at least 500 plate appearances). Pitchers actually have two golden zones, one each for roles as starting pitchers and relievers.'); jpfl_definitions[70] = new Array('eqbb9', 'EqBB9 is calibrated to an ideal major league where EqBB9 = 3.0.\nWhile a major league pitcher\'s equivalent stats should not differ substantially from his actual numbers, a minor league pitcher\'s equivalent stats undergo translation and may differ significantly. Equivalent stats also adjust for park effects.'); jpfl_definitions[71] = new Array('eqera', 'EqERA is calibrated to an ideal major league where EqERA = 4.50.\nWhile a major league pitcher\'s equivalent stats should not differ substantially from his actual numbers, a minor league pitcher\'s equivalent stats undergo translation and may differ significantly. Equivalent stats also adjust for park effects, and the quality of a pitcher\'s defense. EqERA is conceptually identical to NRA, as used in the DT cards.'); jpfl_definitions[72] = new Array('eqh9', 'EqH9 is calibrated to an ideal major league where EqH9 = 9.0.\nWhile a major league pitcher\'s equivalent stats should not differ substantially from his actual numbers, a minor league pitcher\'s equivalent stats undergo translation and may differ significantly. Equivalent stats also adjust for park effects.'); jpfl_definitions[73] = new Array('eqhr9', 'EqHR9 is calibrated to an ideal major league where EqHR9 = 1.0.\nWhile a major league pitcher\'s equivalent stats should not differ substantially from his actual numbers, a minor league pitcher\'s equivalent stats undergo translation and may differ significantly. Equivalent stats also adjust for park effects.'); jpfl_definitions[74] = new Array('eqk9', 'EqK9 is calibrated to an ideal major league where EqK9 = 6.0.\nWhile a major league pitcher\'s equivalent stats should not differ substantially from his actual numbers, a minor league pitcher\'s equivalent stats undergo translation and may differ significantly. Equivalent stats also adjust for park effects.'); jpfl_definitions[75] = new Array('eqr', 'Equivalent Runs; EQR = 5 * OUT * EQA^2.5. In the fielding charts, the estimated number of EqR he had at the plate while playing this position in the field. In Adjusted Standings, EqR refers to the total number of equivalent runs scored by the team. '); jpfl_definitions[76] = new Array('eqra', 'Equivalent Runs allowed by a team.'); jpfl_definitions[77] = new Array('eqaar', 'Equivalent Air Advancement Runs. The number of theoretical runs contributed by a baserunner or baserunners above what would be expected given the number and quality of their baserunning opportunities. EqAAR is based on a multi-year Run Expectancy matrix, is park adjusted, and considers the following scenarios:\n\n
In addition to the probability distribution for a given pitcher, which appears in blue, the chart also includes a normal distribution on ERA for all pitchers in the league, as adjusted to the player\'s current park and league context ("Norm"), and a dashed line representing the performance of a replacement level pitcher ("Replace"). '); jpfl_definitions[81] = new Array('five-year forecast', 'The Five-Year Forecast is a player\'s weighted mean PECOTA forecast, taken over his next five seasons.
\nThe process for generating a player\'s weighted mean line for a season some number of years into the future (e.g. 2008) is fundamentally identical to generating his forecast for the season immediately upcoming (e.g. 2006). The exception is that some players may have dropped out of the comparables database, in which case their performance cannot be considered. (See also \nJeremy Giambi Effect).\nIf a player\'s Drop Rate exceeds 50% (that is, more than half of his comparables are no longer playing professional baseball), then PECOTA does not list his weighted mean line for that season. Instead the season is designated with the tagline \'Out of Baseball\'.\nNote that the Five-Year Forecast assumes that a player\'s team context remains the same for all years of the forecast.'); jpfl_definitions[82] = new Array('owarp', 'A player\'s offensive wins above replacement, as listed on his PECOTA card. Analagous to BRAR.'); jpfl_definitions[83] = new Array('dwarp', 'A player\'s defensive wins above replacement, as listed on his PECOTA card, and accounting for the value of his position and the quality of his defense. Analagous to FRAR.'); jpfl_definitions[84] = new Array('tot warp', 'Total WARP (Wins Above Replacement) as listed on his PECOTA card, considering both a player\'s offensive and defensive contributions. See WARP1.'); jpfl_definitions[85] = new Array('valuation', 'As listed in a player\'s PECOTA card, a series of metrics designed to evaluate a player\'s value to his team going forward. See individual entries for detail.'); jpfl_definitions[86] = new Array('r2_bi', 'Runners on second base batted in'); jpfl_definitions[87] = new Array('r3_bi', 'Runners on third base batted in'); jpfl_definitions[88] = new Array('morp', 'Marginal Value Above Replacement Player, as introduced in this article. MORP is modelled based on the actual behavior of recent free agent markets, and accounts for non-linearity in the market price of baseball talent (e.g. teams are willing to pay more for one 6-win player than two 3-win players).\nAs listed in a player\'s PECOTA card, a player\'s MORP includes the major league minimum salary of $380,000 for 2007. Further, in a player\'s Five-Year Forecast, we assume salary inflation of 8% per year through 2010 (EXCEPTION: a player\'s Peak MORP does *not* include the minimum salary or the inflation adjustment.)\n\nFor 2007, a player\'s MORP is estimated as follows:\n1200000*(WARP^1.5) + 380000\n'); jpfl_definitions[89] = new Array('fraa', 'Fielding Runs Above Average.'); jpfl_definitions[90] = new Array('frar', 'Fielding Runs Above Replacement. The difference between an average player and a replacement player is determined by the number of plays that position is called on to make. That makes the value at each position variable over time. In the all-time adjustments, an average catcher is set to 39 runs above replacement per 162 games, first base to 10, second to 29, third to 22, short to 33, center field to 24, left and right to 14.'); jpfl_definitions[91] = new Array('g', 'Games played (pitched, fielded, officiated). Properly speaking, a pitcher should only be credited with a game played on his batting line when he actually appears in the lineup (i.e., not when a DH hits for him.) The BP database is currently inconsistent in this respect.'); jpfl_definitions[92] = new Array('g/f', 'Ratio of ground balls to fly balls.'); jpfl_definitions[93] = new Array('gdp', 'Grounded into double play. Not recorded prior to 1933 in the NL, or 1939 in the AL, and not at all for the other leagues. Unfortunately, without opportunity information, I don\'t find it very useful for inclusion in EqA. There is also evidence, from Tom Ruane, that players who hit into more DP also tend to advance more runners with outs, enough to offset the DPs.'); jpfl_definitions[94] = new Array('gs', 'Games started by a pitcher.'); jpfl_definitions[95] = new Array('1b', 'Singles or singles allowed.'); jpfl_definitions[96] = new Array('h/bip', 'See BABIP.'); jpfl_definitions[97] = new Array('h_9', 'Hits allowed per 9 innings pitched '); jpfl_definitions[98] = new Array('h9', 'Hits allowed per 9 innings pitched.'); jpfl_definitions[99] = new Array('hbp', 'Hit by pitch. Not recorded for the NL 1876-1886, the AA in 1882-83, the 1884 UA, and the 1871-75 NA, for either hitters or pitchers. '); jpfl_definitions[100] = new Array('hd', 'Holds. A Hold is credited any time a relief pitcher enters a game in a Save Situation, records at least one out, and leaves the game never having relinquished the lead.'); jpfl_definitions[101] = new Array('historical stats', 'Historical Stats are the player\'s previous three seasons of performance as they appear in the BP book (with the addition of a player\'s WARP scores).'); jpfl_definitions[102] = new Array('hr', 'Home runs, or home runs allowed.'); jpfl_definitions[103] = new Array('cat_1', 'A category 1 start is a start in which the pitcher throws 100 pitches or less.'); jpfl_definitions[104] = new Array('cat_2', 'A category 2 start is a start in which the pitcher throws 101-109 pitches.'); jpfl_definitions[105] = new Array('cat_3', 'A category 3 start is a start in which the pitcher throws 110-121 pitches.'); jpfl_definitions[106] = new Array('cat_4', 'A category 4 start is a start in which the pitcher throws 122-132 pitches.'); jpfl_definitions[107] = new Array('cat_5', 'A category 5 start is a start in which the pitcher throws 133 or more pitches.'); jpfl_definitions[108] = new Array('ibb', 'Intentional walks. Not recorded for any league prior to 1955.'); jpfl_definitions[109] = new Array('improvement rate', 'Improvement Rate is the percent chance that a hitter\'s EqR/27 or a pitcher\'s EqERA will improve *at all* relative the weighted average of his EqR/27 or EqERA in his three previous seasons of performance. A player who is expected to perform just the same as he has in the past will have an Improvement Rating of 50%. '); jpfl_definitions[110] = new Array('inn', 'Innings officated.'); jpfl_definitions[111] = new Array('ip', 'Innings Pitched.'); jpfl_definitions[112] = new Array('ip/gs', 'Innings pitched per start.'); jpfl_definitions[113] = new Array('ir', 'Inherited Runs. The number of runners inherited by the reliever who scored while the reliever was in the game. '); jpfl_definitions[114] = new Array('eqmlvr', 'EqMLVr, or Equivalent rate-based Marginal Lineup Value, is calibrated to an ideal major league with an overall EqMLVr of .000.\n\nWhile a major league hitter\'s equivalent stats should not differ substantially from his actual numbers, a minor league hitter\'s equivalent stats undergo translation and may differ significantly. Equivalent stats also account for park effects.'); jpfl_definitions[115] = new Array('iso', 'Isolated Power (ISO) is a measure of a hitter\'s raw power, in terms of extra bases per AB. Its formula is ISO = (2B + (3B*2) + (HR*3)) / AB\n\nIn PECOTA, ISO is one of five primary production metrics used in identifying a hitter or pitcher\'s comparables. PECOTA uses a slightly modified version of Isolated Power that assigns the same value to triples as to doubles (extending a double into a triple is generally an indicator of speed, rather than additional power). Thus, the formula for PECOTA isolated power as follows: ISO = (2B + 3B + (HR*3)) / AB'); jpfl_definitions[116] = new Array('k_9', 'Strikeouts per 9 innings pitched.'); jpfl_definitions[117] = new Array('l', 'Refers to a pitcher\'s losses. In context of a team rather than an individual pitcher, refers to team losses. In VORP and PAP reports, refers to league. '); jpfl_definitions[118] = new Array('l1', '"First order losses." Pythagenport expected losses, based on RS and RA.'); jpfl_definitions[119] = new Array('l2', '"Second order losses." Pythagenport losses, based on EQR and EQRA.'); jpfl_definitions[120] = new Array('l3', '"Third order losses." Pythagenport losses, based on AEQR and AEQRA.'); jpfl_definitions[121] = new Array('lg', 'League. \'A\' or \'AL\' denotes American League. \'N\' or \'NL\' denotes National League.'); jpfl_definitions[122] = new Array('maxnp', 'The highest number of pitches thrown by a pitcher in one outing.'); jpfl_definitions[123] = new Array('mlvr', 'MLVr is a rate-based version of Marginal Lineup Value (MLV), a measure of offensive production created by David Tate and further developed by Keith Woolner. MLV is an estimate of the additional number of runs a given player will contribute to a lineup that otherwise consists of average offensive performers. MLVr is approximately equal to MLV per game. The league average MLVr is zero (0.000). Additional information on MLV and MLVr can be found here.'); jpfl_definitions[124] = new Array('name', 'Player\'s name.'); jpfl_definitions[125] = new Array('np', 'Total number of pitches thrown.'); jpfl_definitions[126] = new Array('nra', 'Normalized Runs Allowed. "Normalized runs" have the same win value, against a league average of 4.5 and a pythagorean exponent of 2, as the player\'s actual runs allowed did when measured against his league average.'); jpfl_definitions[127] = new Array('oba', 'On-base average. (H + BB + HBP) divided by (AB + BB + HBP + SF). '); jpfl_definitions[128] = new Array('obp', 'On-base percentage. (H + BB + HBP) divided by (AB + BB + HBP + SF). For pitchers, OBP is on base percentage allowed.'); jpfl_definitions[129] = new Array('ops', 'On Base Percentage + Slugging Percentage'); jpfl_definitions[130] = new Array('outs', 'Known outs made by the player, defined by AB-H+CS+SH+SF. '); jpfl_definitions[131] = new Array('owp', 'Offensive Winning Percentage. A Bill James stat, usually derived from runs created. In EqA terms, it could be calculated as (EQA/refEQA)^5, where refEQA is some reference EQA, such as league average (always .260) or the position-averaged EQA. '); jpfl_definitions[132] = new Array('pa', 'Plate appearances; AB + BB + HBP + SH + SF.'); jpfl_definitions[133] = new Array('pa%', 'The percentage of the team\'s total plate appearances that this player had. '); jpfl_definitions[134] = new Array('pap', 'Pitcher Abuse Points. When used in the Pitcher Abuse Point report, PAP refers to PAP^3, which assigns 0 PAP to a start in which the pitcher throws 100 or fewer pitches and (PC-100)^3 PAP for all other starts.'); jpfl_definitions[135] = new Array('park adjustment', 'An adjustment made to account for the fact that some parks are easier to hit in than average, giving an advantage (in raw statistical terms) to hitters who play for that team. Park factors are always made relative to a league average of 1.00. The park adjustments in the BP are made only on the park factor for runs, averaged over five years; they can be found here. The first column is a one-year park factor, the second column is the five-year average centered on that year (assuming the team did not change or massively renovate their park).'); jpfl_definitions[136] = new Array('pb', 'Passed balls; not available for the NA.'); jpfl_definitions[137] = new Array('pera', 'PERA is a pitcher\'s ERA as estimated from his peripheral statistics (EqH9, EqHR9, EqBB9, EqK9). Because it is not sensitive to the timing of batting events, PERA is less subject to luck than ERA, and is a better predictor of ERA going-forward than ERA itself. Like the rest of a pitcher\'s equivalent stats, his PERA is calibrated to an ideal league with an average PERA of 4.50. '); jpfl_definitions[138] = new Array('pitching/fielding breakdown', 'Described more completely in the 2002 Prospectus, the breakdown is a sequence of calculations designed to separate the pitching and fielding components of defense from each other. Certain events (walks, strikeouts, home runs) are considered to be entirely the responsibility of the pitcher. Errors and double plays are assumed to be entirely the domain of the fielders. Other hits and outs are assumed to be 75% fielding, 25% pitching.'); jpfl_definitions[139] = new Array('pk_ra', 'A pitcher\'s park-adjusted RA, expressed on a scale like ERA or RA. RA+ -- Park and league normalized Run Average. Similar to ERA+ found in Total Baseball, but based on RA rather than ERA. '); jpfl_definitions[140] = new Array('player profile', 'For Hitters:
The Player Profile is a chart that evaluates a given hitter\'s primary production metrics (batting average, isolated power, unintentional walk rate, strikeout rate, and speed score) as a percentile compared to all major league hitters. For example, a player with an isolated power rating of 75% is superior in this category to three-quarters of all major leaguers. The player profile is based on the player\'s three previous seasons of performance, rather than his projection.
For Pitchers:
The Player Profile is a chart that evaluates a pitcher\'s performance in five categories: strikeout rate, walk rate, opponents\' isolated power (e.g. home run rate), hit rate on balls in play, and groundball-to-flyball ratio. The rates are presented as a percentile compared to all major league pitchers; for example, a player with a strikeout rating of 75% is superior in this category to three-quarters of all major leaguers. The player profile is based on the player\'s three previous seasons of performance, rather than his projection.
Note that the denominator for strikeout rate and walk rate as presented in the Player Profile is not innings pitched, but batters faced. This calculation is somewhat more accurate as pitchers differ in the number of batters they face per inning based on their on base average allowed. Note also that, for pitchers, the percentiles take into account whether the pitcher threw in a starting or relief role, as most pitchers post substantially better numbers in relief.'); jpfl_definitions[141] = new Array('pmlvr', 'Positional MLV rate. Runs/game contributed by a batter beyond what an average player at the same position would hit in a team of otherwise league-average hitters. Like MLVr, it is a rate stat. The comparable season total is PMLV. '); jpfl_definitions[142] = new Array('po', 'Putouts.'); jpfl_definitions[143] = new Array('pos', 'Player\'s position.'); jpfl_definitions[144] = new Array('position', 'For PECOTA, a player\'s Position is a consideration in identifying his comparables, as well as in calculating his VORP. The player\'s primary position as used by PECOTA is listed at the top of his forecast page; however, secondary and tertiary positions are also considered based on the relative amount of appearances that a player receives there. The position determination is made primarily based on the position(s) that a player appeared in his most recent season, with lesser consideration given to the position(s) he appeared other recent previous seasons. Both major league and minor league defensive appearances are considered in the determination of a player\'s position, but major league appearances are weighted more heavily. PECOTA considers LF, CF and RF to be separate positions.\n\nWhen listed numerically on our statistical reports, positions are: 1, pitcher; 2, catcher; 3, first base; 4, second base; 5, third base; 6, shortstop; 7, left field; 8, center field; 9, right field; 10, designated hitter; 11, pinch hitter; 12, pinch runner.'); jpfl_definitions[145] = new Array('praa', 'Pitcher-only runs above average. The difference between this and RAA is that RAA is really a total defense statistic, and PRAA tries to isolate the pitching component from the fielding portion. It relies on the pitching/fielding breakdown being run for the team, league, and individual. The individual pitching + defense total is compared to a league average pitcher + team average defense, and the difference is win-adjusted.'); jpfl_definitions[146] = new Array('prar', 'Pitcher-only runs above replacement. Similar to PRAA, except that the comparison is made to a replacement level player instead of average. The nominal RA for a replacement pitcher is 6.11 (the same ratio, compared to a 4.50 average, as a .230 EQA is to .260). This assumes that there is a 50/50 split between pitching and fielding. If the pitch/field split is less than that, as it was in the 1800s, the replacement ERA is reduced.'); jpfl_definitions[147] = new Array('pythagenpat', 'A modified form of Bill James\' Pythagorean formula. Instead of using a fixed exponent (2, 1.83), the Pythagenpat formula, developed by Smyth/Patriot, derives the exponent from the run environment - the more runs per game, the higher the exponent. It also improves upon a similar formula, the Pythagenport formula, developed by Clay Davenport and previously used in our Adjusted Standings calculations.'); jpfl_definitions[148] = new Array('r', 'Runs scored (for hitters) or allowed (pitchers).'); jpfl_definitions[149] = new Array('ra', 'Actual team runs allowed. Can also stand for Run Average--runs allowed, earned or otherwise, divided by innings pitched, times 9.'); jpfl_definitions[150] = new Array('ra_plus', 'Park and league normalized Run Average. Similar to ERA+ found in Total Baseball, but based on RA rather than ERA. '); jpfl_definitions[151] = new Array('raa', 'For Pitchers:
Runs above average. At its simplest, this would be the league runs per inning, times individual innings, minus individual runs allowed. However, we have gone one step beyond that, because being 50 runs above average in 1930, in the Baker Bowl, doesn\'t have the same win impact as being +50 in the 1968 Astrodome. The league runs per inning need to be adjusted for park and team hitting (and difficulty, for the alltime RAA), and then you can multiply by individual innings and subtract individual runs. Finally, that quantity needs to be win-adjusted. See win-adjustment.
For Fielders:
Runs above average at this position, similar to Palmer\'s Fielding Runs as far as interpretation is concerned.'); jpfl_definitions[152] = new Array('frar, frar2', 'Fielding runs above replacement. A fielding statistic, where a replacement player is meant to be approximately equal to the lowest-ranking player at that position, fielding wise, in the majors. Average players at different positions have different FRAR values, which depend on the defensive value of the position; an average shortstop has more FRAR than an average left fielder. '); jpfl_definitions[153] = new Array('frar2', 'See FRAR, FRAR2. FRAR2 incorporates adjustments for league difficulty and normalizes defensive statistics over time.'); jpfl_definitions[154] = new Array('rate', 'A way to look at the fielder\'s rate of production, equal to 100 plus the number of runs above or below average this fielder is per 100 games. A player with a rate of 110 is 10 runs above average per 100 games, a player with an 87 is 13 runs below average per 100 games, etc.'); jpfl_definitions[155] = new Array('rate2', 'See Rate. Rate2 incorporates adjustments for league difficulty and normalizes defensive statistics over time.'); jpfl_definitions[156] = new Array('rbi', 'Runs Batted In. '); jpfl_definitions[157] = new Array('reqa', 'Raw equivalent average, the first step towards building the EqA. In its fullest form, REQA = (H + TB + 1.5*(BB + HBP + SB) + SH + SF) divided by (AB + BB + HBP + SH + SF + CS + SB). REQA gets converted into unadjusted equivalent runs, UEQR.'); jpfl_definitions[158] = new Array('rp', 'Runs Prevented. The extra number of runs an average pitcher would have allowed in the same number of innings pitched (adjusted for park and league). RP greater than zero indicates that the pitcher allowed fewer runs than an average pitcher (i.e. he\'s better than average). Negative RP indicates the pitcher allowed more runs than an average pitcher (i.e. he\'s worse then average) '); jpfl_definitions[159] = new Array('rpmlvr', 'Replacement level MLV rate. Runs/game contributed by a batter beyond what a replacement level player at the same position would hit in a team of otherwise league-average hitters. The comparable season total is RPMLV. It differs from VORPr and VORP only in that it is solely based on batting performance whereas VORP includes basestealing. '); jpfl_definitions[160] = new Array('eqslg', 'EqSLG, or Equivalent Slugging Percentage, is calibrated to an ideal major league with an overall EqSLG of .440.\n\nWhile a major league hitter\'s equivalent stats should not differ substantially from his actual numbers, a minor league hitter\'s equivalent stats undergo translation and may differ significantly. Equivalent stats also account for park effects.'); jpfl_definitions[161] = new Array('rs', 'Actual runs scored by a team.'); jpfl_definitions[162] = new Array('sb', 'Stolen bases. Not recorded for any league between 1876 and 1885. On the catcher\'s fielding charts, not available prior to 1978.'); jpfl_definitions[163] = new Array('sf', 'Sacrifice flies. The statistical category of "sacrifice flies" did not exist prior to 1954; the concept had been around, on and off, since 1908, but had been always been part of the "SH" category. See SH. '); jpfl_definitions[164] = new Array('sh', 'Sacrifice hits. Not recorded prior to 1894. From 1894-1907, they were essentially the same as the modern rule - a bunt which advanced a baserunner. From 1908-25, they included what we would now call a sacrifice fly (sacrifices increase 25% between 1907 and 1908 as a result). From 1926-30, they included any fly ball on which a runner advanced, not just ones where the runner scored (another 25% increase in 1926). From 1931-38, sacrifice flies were eliminated completely (causing a 45% drop in sacrifices, and a 4-point decline in batting averages); that brought us back to the modern definition of sacrifice hit. In 1939 they re-introduced the run-scoring sac fly (returning to the 1908-25 rules), but eliminated it again in 1940. When sacrifice flies appeared again in 1954, they had their own category, so the rule for what we would call a sacrifice hit has not changed since 1940.'); jpfl_definitions[165] = new Array('sho', 'Shutouts.'); jpfl_definitions[166] = new Array('similarity index', 'Similarity Index is a composite of the similarity scores of all of a player\'s comparables. Similarity index is a gauge of the player\'s historical uniqueness; a player with a score of 50 or higher has a very common typology, while a player with a score of 20 or lower is historically unusual. For players with a very low similarity index, PECOTA expands its tolerance for dissimilar comparables until a meaningful sample size is established (see Comparable Players). '); jpfl_definitions[167] = new Array('similarity score', 'Similarity Score is a relative measure of a player\'s comparability. Its scale is very different from the Bill James similarity scores; a score of 100 is assigned to a perfect comparable, while a score of 0 represents a player who is meaningfully similar. Players can and frequently do receive negative similarity scores, and they are dropped from the analysis. A score above 50 indicates that a player is substantially comparable, and scores in excess of 70 are very unusual. The comparable player observations are weighted based on their similarity score in constructing a forecast. '); jpfl_definitions[168] = new Array('slg', 'Slugging percentage (hitters) or slugging percentage allowed (pitchers). Total bases divided by at-bats.'); jpfl_definitions[169] = new Array('snl', 'Support-Neutral Losses. the pitcher\'s expected number of losses assuming he had league-average support.'); jpfl_definitions[170] = new Array('snpct', 'SNW / (SNW+SNL)'); jpfl_definitions[171] = new Array('snva', 'Support Neutral Value Added - wins above average added by the pitcher\'s performance.'); jpfl_definitions[172] = new Array('snlva', 'Support Neutral Lineup-adjusted Value Added - like SNVA, but also adjusted for the MLVr of each batter the pitcher faced.'); jpfl_definitions[173] = new Array('snw', 'Support-Neutral Wins. the pitcher\'s expected number of wins assuming he had league-average support.'); jpfl_definitions[174] = new Array('snwar', 'Support-Neutral Wins Above Replacement-level. the number of SNWs a pitcher has above what a .425 pitcher would get in the same number of (Support-Neutral) decisions.'); jpfl_definitions[175] = new Array('so', 'Strikeouts. For pitchers, batters struck out, for batters, times struck out.'); jpfl_definitions[176] = new Array('so9', 'Strikeouts per 9 innings pitched.'); jpfl_definitions[177] = new Array('speed score', 'Speed Score (SPD) is one of five primary production metrics used by PECOTA in identifying a hitter\'s comparables. It is based in principle on the Bill James speed score and includes five components: Stolen base percentage, stolen base attempts as a percentage of opportunities, triples, double plays grounded into as a percentage of opportunities, and runs scored as a percentage of times on base.
\nBeginning in 2006, BP has developed a proprietary version of Speed Score that takes better advantage of play-by-play data and ensures that equal weight is given to the five components. In the BP formulation of Speed Score, an average rating is exactly 5.0. The highest and lowest possible scores are 10.0 and 0.0, respectively, but in practice most players fall within the boundary between 7.0 (very fast) and 3.0 (very slow). '); jpfl_definitions[178] = new Array('standard league', 'The "standard league" is a mythical construction, in which all statistics have been adjusted for easy comparison. Its primary features are that runs scored is 4.5 runs per game; equivalent average is .260; and the pythagorean exponent is exactly 2.00.'); jpfl_definitions[179] = new Array('stolen base percentage', 'In PECOTA, stolen base attempts as a percentage of times on first base. '); jpfl_definitions[180] = new Array('stuff', 'A rough indicator of the pitcher\'s overall dominance, based on normalized strikeout rates, walk rates, home run rates, runs allowed, and innings per game. "10" is league average, while "0" is roughly replacement level. The formula is as follows: Stuff = EqK9 * 6 - 1.333 * (EqERA + PERA) - 3 * EqBB9 - 5 * EqHR9 -3 * MAX{6-IP/G),0} '); jpfl_definitions[181] = new Array('stress', 'Pitcher abuse points divided by number of pitches thrown, or PAP/NP.'); jpfl_definitions[182] = new Array('strikeout rate', 'Strikeout Rate (K) is one of five primary production metrics used by PECOTA in identifying a player\'s comparables. It is defined as SO/PA. '); jpfl_definitions[183] = new Array('strk%', 'Percentage of pitches thrown for strikes.'); jpfl_definitions[184] = new Array('sv', 'Saves.'); jpfl_definitions[185] = new Array('tbf', 'Total batters faced. Not recorded for the NL 1876-1886, the AA of 1882-83, the 1884 UA, or the NA of 1871-75.'); jpfl_definitions[186] = new Array('tea', 'Team.'); jpfl_definitions[187] = new Array('team', 'As used in most places (including the PECOTA cards), Team is the three letter abbreviation for a major league, minor league, or foreign team. This page contains the list of teams and their abbreviations.The Davenport Translations Player Cards have slightly different abbreviations, with a three-character team signifier, followed by a league signifier. The leagues are as follows: N signifies the National Association of 1871-1875 and the National League of 1876-present. A is for both the American Association (1882-1891, a major league, separate from the later minor league of the same name) and the 1901-present American League. U is the Union Association of 1884, P the Players League of 1890, and F the Federal League of 1914-15. For example, the Boston Red Sox are BOS-A, where the "A" signifies an American League team, while BOS-N refers to the Boston Braves National League franchise. At this time, for players who played for more than one team in a season, the order in which the various team stints are shown is not necessarily chronological.'); jpfl_definitions[188] = new Array('team hitting adjustment', 'An adjustment made for hitters, to account for not having to face their own pitchers. Using pitching stats, (league R * pf - team R), divided by (league IP - team IP), divided by park-adjusted league runs per inning.'); jpfl_definitions[189] = new Array('team pitching adjustment', 'An adjustment made for pitchers, to account for not having to face their own team\'s batters. Using batting stats, (league runs * pf - team runs), divided by (league PA - team PA), divided by league runs per plate appearance * pf.'); jpfl_definitions[190] = new Array('tm', 'Team.'); jpfl_definitions[191] = new Array('total bases', 'Hits plus doubles plus two times triples plus three times home runs.'); jpfl_definitions[192] = new Array('trend', 'Trend identifies players who demonstrate dramatic changes from their Baseline during their comparable year.
For Hitters:
Hitters who improve their EqR/PA by at least 20% are identified by a green, upward-pointing arrow and contribute to a hitter\'s Breakout score; hitters whose EqR/PA decreases by at least 20% are identified by a red, downward-pointing arrow and contribute to a hitter\'s Collapse score.
For Pitchers:
Pitchers who improve their EqERA by at least 20% are identified by a green, upward-pointing arrow and contribute to a pitcher\'s Breakout score; pitchers whose EqERA increases by at least 25% are identified by a red, downward-pointing arrow and contribute to a pitcher\'s Collapse score. '); jpfl_definitions[193] = new Array('ueqr', 'Unadjusted Equivalent Runs; (2 * REQA/LgREQA - 1) * PA * LgR/LgPA. Analogous to runs created.'); jpfl_definitions[194] = new Array('ugueto effect', 'The Ugueto Effect is name given to the phenomenon in which very poor players are associated with very high PECOTA Breakout scores. It is far easier for a player like Luis Ugueto, who would produce about 40 EQR over a full season, to improve upon that figure by 20% than it is for Alex Rodriguez; as a result, his Breakout score is likely to be higher. This does not mean that Ugueto is a player you\'d want anywhere near your roster. '); jpfl_definitions[195] = new Array('umpire', 'Umpire\'s name.'); jpfl_definitions[196] = new Array('unintentional walk rate', 'Unintentional Walk Rate (BB) is one of five primary production metrics used by PECOTA in identifying a player\'s comparables. It is defined as (BB-IBB)/PA. '); jpfl_definitions[197] = new Array('rob', 'Runners On Base (typically the number of runners on base during a batter\'s plate appearances)'); jpfl_definitions[198] = new Array('obi', 'Others Batted In -- runs batted in, except for the batter driving himself in via a home run. Equal to RBI-HR'); jpfl_definitions[199] = new Array('vorp', 'Value Over Replacement Player. The number of runs contributed beyond what a replacement-level player at the same position would contribute if given the same percentage of team plate appearances. VORP scores do not consider the quality of a player\'s defense.
\n\nSee also RARP.'); jpfl_definitions[200] = new Array('vorpr', 'VORP rate. Runs/game contributed beyond what a replacement level player would produce. Also a rate stat. '); jpfl_definitions[201] = new Array('w', 'Refers to a pitcher\'s wins. In context of a team rather than an individual pitcher, refers to team wins.'); jpfl_definitions[202] = new Array('w1', '"First order wins." Pythagenport expected wins, based on RS and RA.'); jpfl_definitions[203] = new Array('w2', '"Second order wins." Pythagenport wins, based on EQR and EQRA.'); jpfl_definitions[204] = new Array('w3', '"Third order wins." Pythagenport wins, based on AEQR and AEQRA.'); jpfl_definitions[205] = new Array('w_9', 'Walks allowed per 9 innings pitched '); jpfl_definitions[206] = new Array('warp', 'Wins Above Replacement Player, level 1. The number of wins this player contributed, above what a replacement level hitter, fielder, and pitcher would have done, with adjustments only for within the season. It should be noted that a team which is at replacement level in all three of batting, pitching, and fielding will be an extraordinarily bad team, on the order of 20-25 wins in a 162-game season.
\nWARP is also listed on a player\'s PECOTA card. The PECOTA WARP listing is designed to correspond to WARP-1, not WARP-2 or WARP-3.'); jpfl_definitions[207] = new Array('warp2', 'Wins Above Replacement Player, with difficulty added into the mix. One of the factors that goes into league difficulty is whether or not the league uses a DH, which is why recent AL players tend to get a larger boost than their NL counterparts.'); jpfl_definitions[208] = new Array('warp3', 'WARP2, expanded to 162 games to compensate for shortened seasons. Initially, I was just going to use (162/season length) as the multiplier, but this seemed to overexpand the very short seasons of the 19th century. I settled on using (162/scheduled games) ** (2/3). So Ross Barnes\' 6.2 wins in 1873, a 55 game season, only gets extended to 12.8 WARP, instead of a straight-line adjustment of 18.3.\n\nFor most hitters, at least, it is just that simple. Pitchers are treated differently, as we not only look at season length, but the typical number of innings thrown by a top starting pitcher that year (defined by the average IP of the top five in IP). We find it hard to argue that pitchers throwing 300 or more innings a year are suffering some sort of discrimination in the standings due to having shortened seasons. This why Walter Johnson has almost no adjustment between WARP2 and WARP3, while his contemporaries Cobb, Speaker, and Collins all gain around 7 or 8 wins.\n'); jpfl_definitions[209] = new Array('weighted mean', 'The Weighted Mean forecast incorporates all of the player\'s potential outcomes into a single average, weighted baed on projected playing time. In almost all cases, poor performances are associated with a reduced number of plate appearances. For that reason, they don\'t hurt a player\'s team quite as much as good performances help it; the weighting is designed to compensate for this effect (see also Jeremy Giambi Effect).
\nEXCEPTION: a player\'s projected PLAYING TIME (and therefore, his counting statistics that are incumbent on his playing time) is taken based on the median of his comparables\' performance, rather than the weighted mean. This is designed to mitigate the influence of catastrophic injuries, which are better represented by Attrition Rate. \nThis exception does NOT affect a player\'s WARP and VORP forecast, which are calculated per the weighted mean method, treating players who dropped out of the database as having zero WARP/VORP.'); jpfl_definitions[210] = new Array('win adjustment', 'A correction made to raw runs when converting them to a standard league to preserve their win value. Define an average team from season games played, league runs per game (9 innings or 27 outs, depending on whether you are using pitcher or batter data), and appropriate adjustments (park, team hitting/pitching, difficulty). "Team" is the effect of replacing one player on the average team with the player we are analyzing. Calculate the pythagorean exponent from (average + team) / games as your RPG entry; calculate winning percentage using the modified pythagorean formula. Now, go backwards, solve for "team" runs, given the winning percentage, an average team that scores 4.5 per game, and a pythagorean exponent of 2.00.'); jpfl_definitions[211] = new Array('wins', 'See WARP-1.'); jpfl_definitions[212] = new Array('wp', 'Wild pitches.'); jpfl_definitions[213] = new Array('xip', 'Adjusted Innings Pitched; used for the PRAA and PRAR statistics. There are two separate adjustments:1) Decisions. Innings are redistributed among the members of the team to favor those who took part in more decisions (wins, losses, and saves) than their innings alone would lead you to expect. The main incentive was to do a better job recognizing the value of closers than a simple runs above average approach would permit. XIPA for the team, after this adjustment, will equal team innings. First, adjust the wins and saves; let X = (team wins) / (team wins + saves). Multiply that by individual (wins + saves) to get an adjusted win total. Add losses. Multiply by team innings divided by team wins and losses.
2) Pitcher/fielder share. When I do the pitch/field breakdown for individuals, one of the stats that gets separated is innings. If an individual pitcher has more pitcher-specific innings than an average pitcher with the same total innings would have, than the difference is added to his XIPA. If a pitcher has fewer than average, the difference is subtracted. This creates a deliberate bias in favor of pitchers who are more independent of their fielders (the strikeout pitchers, basically), and against those who are highly dependent on their defenses (the Tommy John types).'); jpfl_definitions[214] = new Array('roe', 'Reached On Error: when a batter reaches first base as a direct result of a fielding error.'); jpfl_definitions[215] = new Array('blob', 'Batters Left On Base'); jpfl_definitions[216] = new Array('loogy', 'Lefty One Out GuY - a left handed reliever specializing in getting one out, often in game critical situations'); jpfl_definitions[217] = new Array('rarp', 'Runs Above Replacement, Position-adjusted. A statistic that compares a hitter\'s Equivalent Run total to that of a replacement-level player who makes the same number of outs and plays the same position. A "replacement level" player is one who has 22.1 fewer EqR per 486 outs than the average for that position. For the overall league average (.260), that corresponds to a .230 EqA and a .351 winning percentage.
\n\nEssentially, this is the Equivalent Average analog of VORP.'); jpfl_definitions[218] = new Array('braa', 'Batting Runs Above Average. The number of runs better than a hitter with a .260 EQA (i.e., an average hitter) and the same number of outs; EQR - 5 * OUT * .260^2.5.'); jpfl_definitions[219] = new Array('babip', 'Batting Average on balls put into play. A pitcher\'s average on batted balls ending a plate appearance, excluding home runs. Based on the research of Voros McCracken and others, BABIP is mostly a function of a pitcher\'s defense and luck, rather than persistent skill. Thus, pitchers with abnormally high or low BABIPs are good bets to see their performances regress to the mean. A typical BABIP is about .300.'); jpfl_definitions[220] = new Array('eqobp', 'EqOBP, or Equivalent On Base Percentage, is calibrated to an ideal major league with an overall EqOBP of .340.\n\nWhile a major league hitter\'s equivalent stats should not differ substantially from his actual numbers, a minor league hitter\'s equivalent stats undergo translation and may differ significantly. Equivalent stats also account for park effects.'); jpfl_definitions[221] = new Array('eqba', 'EqBA, or Equivalent Batting Average, is calibrated to an ideal major league with an overall EqBA of .270.\n\nWhile a major league hitter\'s equivalent stats should not differ substantially from his actual numbers, a minor league hitter\'s equivalent stats undergo translation and may differ significantly. Equivalent stats also account for park effects.'); jpfl_definitions[222] = new Array('snvar', 'like SNVA, but comparing to replacement level, rather than average. Replacement level is now being computed the same way in SNVA and in VORP (using the formulas from Keith Woolner\'s BP 2002 article).'); jpfl_definitions[223] = new Array('snlvar', 'like SNLVA, but comparing to replacement level, rather than average. Replacement level is now being computed the same way in SNVA and in VORP (using the formulas from Keith Woolner\'s BP 2002 article).'); jpfl_definitions[224] = new Array('flake', 'Standard deviation of per-start SNVA for each pitcher. This was previously shown as the variance, and was used to compute the "flakiest" pitchers. Standard deviation is just the square root of the variance, so these are equivalent.'); jpfl_definitions[225] = new Array('luck', 'Luck, as measured by the number of extra wins, and short losses the pitcher actually got, versus his expected record. LUCK = (W-E(W))+(E(L)-L)'); jpfl_definitions[226] = new Array('tmw', 'Team\'s expected wins in the games started by the pitcher. This will always add (with TmL) up to the pitcher\'s total games started.'); jpfl_definitions[227] = new Array('tml', 'Team\'s expected losses in the games started by the pitcher. This will always add (with TmW) up to the pitcher\'s total games started.'); jpfl_definitions[228] = new Array('rap', 'Runs Above Position: The number of Equivalent Runs this player produced, above what an average player at the same postion would have produced in the same number of outs.'); jpfl_definitions[229] = new Array('gr', 'Games in relief'); jpfl_definitions[230] = new Array('inb', 'Inherited baserunners. '); jpfl_definitions[231] = new Array('ins', 'Inherited runners who scored. A raw count of the number of runners who scored. This differs from INR, which subtracts INS from the expected number of inherited runners that would have scored given league average performance in the given situations.'); jpfl_definitions[232] = new Array('beq_runners', 'Bequeathed baserunners.'); jpfl_definitions[233] = new Array('beq_r', 'Bequeathed runners who scored.'); jpfl_definitions[234] = new Array('beq_runs_prevented', 'Bequeathed runs prevented from scoring. Measures how many more or fewer of the bequeathed baserunners subsequent relievers allowed to score than would be expected from league average performance in those situations. I.e., a positive figure means the following relievers kept more of the bequeathed runners from scoring than expected, negative means more of the runners scored than expected.'); jpfl_definitions[235] = new Array('apr', 'Adjusted Pitching Runs (a la Thorn & Palmer in "Total Baseball").'); jpfl_definitions[236] = new Array('arp', 'Adjusted Runs Prevented from scoring.'); jpfl_definitions[237] = new Array('diff', 'How much a pitcher is underrated by Adjusted Pitching Runs (DIFF = ARP - APR).'); jpfl_definitions[238] = new Array('bb rate', 'Percentage of plate appearances that result in a walk. '); jpfl_definitions[239] = new Array('hr9', 'Home runs allowed per 9 innings pitched.'); jpfl_definitions[240] = new Array('wx', 'Expected wins added over an average pitcher. WX uses win expectancy calculations to assess how relievers have changed the outcome of games. Win expectancy looks at the inning, score, and runners on base when the reliever entered the game, and determines the probability of the team winning the game from that point with an average pitcher. Then it looks at how the reliever actually did, and how that changes the probability of winning. The difference between how the reliever improved the chances of winning and how an average pitcher would is his WX.'); jpfl_definitions[241] = new Array('winexpl', 'Expected wins added over an average pitcher, adjusted for level of opposing hitters faced. WXL factors in the MLVr of the actual batters faced by the relievers. Then, like WX, WXL uses win expectancy calculations to assess how relievers have changed the outcome of games.'); jpfl_definitions[242] = new Array('winexpr', 'Expected wins added over a replacement level pitcher. WXR uses win expectancy calculations to assess how relievers have changed the outcome of games, similar to WX. However, instead of comparing the pitcher\'s performance to an average pitcher, he is compared to a replacement level pitcher to determine WXR.'); jpfl_definitions[243] = new Array('wxrl', 'Expected wins added over a replacement level pitcher, adjusted for level of opposing hitters. WXRL combines the individual adjustments for replacement level (WXR) and quality of the opposing lineup (WXL) to the basic WX calculation.'); jpfl_definitions[244] = new Array('bullpen_support', 'The number of additional runs charged to the starting pitcher that his bullpen allowed to score after he left the game, compared to an average bullpen. Negative Pen Support means the bullpen prevented more runs from scoring than an average pen (i.e. the pitcher\'s ERA looks better than it should because of good bullpen support).'); jpfl_definitions[245] = new Array('winexp', 'The probability of winning the current game, given some\ninformation about how many runs each team has scored to a certain point in the game, how many outs there are, whether there are runners on base, and the strength of each team. Keith Woolner outlined a method for computing Win Expectancy given all of these parameters in BP 2005.'); jpfl_definitions[246] = new Array('rbi per runner', 'Number of runs a batter has driven in per runner on base during a batter\'s plate appearances. Defined as total baserunners/RBI (NB: Runners on base are other than the batter himself--RBI\'s resulting from a batter driving himself in on home runs are removed).'); jpfl_definitions[247] = new Array('mlv', 'Marginal Lineup Value, a measure of offensive production created by David Tate and further developed by Keith Woolner. MLV is an estimate of the additional number of runs a given player will contribute to a lineup that otherwise consists of average offensive performers. Additional information on MLV can be found here.\n'); jpfl_definitions[248] = new Array('pmlv', 'Positional MLV. Runs contributed by a batter beyond what an average player at the same position would produce in a team of otherwise league-average hitters.'); jpfl_definitions[249] = new Array('rar', 'Runs Above Replacement. \n\nFor a fielder, it is simply Runs Above Replacement for the position, where a replacement-level fielder is determined to be about 20 runs below average for the position; the number varies slightly depending on the number of balls in play.'); jpfl_definitions[250] = new Array('baserunner state', 'Indication of who is on base, used to calculate Win Expectancy. An unoccupied base is designated with a \'0\', and an occupied base is designated with the number of the base (1=first base, 2=second base, 3= third base). All bases are represented by a three-digit string. For example, 000=bases empty, while 103=runners on first and third.'); jpfl_definitions[251] = new Array('base-out state', 'Refers to the Baserunner State combined with the number of\nouts in the current half inning, used to calculate Win Expectancy. For example, \'2-103\' indicates two outs with runners on first and third.'); jpfl_definitions[252] = new Array('rpi', 'Runs Per Inning. RPI is the average number of runs scored per inning by a given team or lineup, used to calculate Win Expectancy. RPI is a measure of the strength of a team\'s offense (or conversely, the strength of the opposing team\'s pitching staff).'); jpfl_definitions[253] = new Array('r1', 'Runner on first. In the RBI opportunity report, refers to the number of times a batter came to the plate with a runner at first base.'); jpfl_definitions[254] = new Array('r2', 'Runner on second. In the RBI opportunity report, refers to the number of times the batter came to the plate with a runner at second base.'); jpfl_definitions[255] = new Array('r3', 'Runner on third. In the RBI opportunity report, refers to the number of times the batter came to the plate with a runner at third base.'); jpfl_definitions[256] = new Array('inh_runs_prevented', 'Inherited runs prevented from scoring. The expected number of inherited runners that would score in the reliever\'s appearances based upon league average performance, minus the actual number the reliever allowed to score.'); jpfl_definitions[257] = new Array('h', 'Hits, or hits allowed.'); jpfl_definitions[258] = new Array('maxpap', 'The maximum amount of Pitcher Abuse Points a pitcher has accumulated in a single start.'); jpfl_definitions[259] = new Array('tmwn%', 'Team\'s expected winning percentage in the games started by the pitcher.'); jpfl_definitions[260] = new Array('so_bb', 'Strikeout to walk ratio: strikeouts divided by walks. '); jpfl_definitions[261] = new Array('roe rate', 'Percentage of plate appearances that result in the batter reaching base on an error.'); jpfl_definitions[262] = new Array('so rate', 'Percentage of plate appearances that result in a strikeout.'); jpfl_definitions[263] = new Array('sb%', 'Percentage of stolen base attempts that are successful. '); jpfl_definitions[264] = new Array('total runners', 'The total amount of baserunners that have been on base for a batter\'s plate appearances.'); jpfl_definitions[265] = new Array('pitcher', 'The Pitcher\'s Quality of Batter\'s Faced statistical report shows how good the hitters a pitcher has faced are. A pitcher who has faced batters with an average OPS of .750, for example, has had an easier time than a pitcher facing batters with an average OPS of .800.'); jpfl_definitions[266] = new Array('fair_ra', '"Fair" runs against average. RA with inherited/bequeathed runners included.'); jpfl_definitions[267] = new Array('dp_percent', 'The percent of the time the double play opportunities (DP_OPPS) were converted into double plays (DP)'); jpfl_definitions[268] = new Array('sb_percent', 'The percentage of the time that a stolen base attempt was successful.'); jpfl_definitions[269] = new Array('bbr', 'Walk rate. Percentage of plate appearances that result in a walk. '); jpfl_definitions[270] = new Array('batted_in', 'The number of runs a player has batted in other than himself (BATTED_IN=RBI-HR).'); jpfl_definitions[271] = new Array('translated batting statistics', 'Converts the player\'s batting statistics into a context that is the same for everybody. The major characteristics of the translation are: 1) that the translated EQA should equal the original, all-time adjusted EQA (within some margin for error); 2) that all seasons are expanded to a 162 game schedule; 3) that the statistics are adjusted to a season where an average hitter would have, per 650 PA: 589 AB, 153 H, 31 DB, 3 TP, 19 HR, 56 BB, 5 HBP, 113 SO, 10 SB, 5 CS, 79 R and 75 RBI. His rates would be a .260 batting average, .330 onbase average, .420 slugging average, and a .260 EQA with 76 EQR.'); jpfl_definitions[272] = new Array('translated pitching statistics', 'Converts all pitching statistics into a standard context. Pitchers are translated to a league where the top five pitchers (in innings) pitch an average of 275 innings. An average pitcher will have rates, per nine innings, of 9.00 hits, 1.00 home run, 3.00 walks, 6.00 strikeouts, and 4.50 earned runs. In the standard context, a replacement level pitcher has a 6.00; the translation is set up to conserve runs above replacement (alltime PRAR). Wins and losses are set using the pythagorean formula with average run support, with the pitcher\'s actual deviation from his real expected win percentage added back in.'); jpfl_definitions[273] = new Array('year', 'Year played.'); jpfl_definitions[274] = new Array('inr', 'Inherited runs prevented from scoring. The expected number of inherited runners that would score in the reliever\'s appearances based upon league average performance, minus the actual number the reliever allowed to score.'); jpfl_definitions[275] = new Array('bqb', 'Bequeathed baserunners.'); jpfl_definitions[276] = new Array('bqs', 'Bequeathed baserunners who scored.'); jpfl_definitions[277] = new Array('bqr', 'Bequeathed runs prevented from scoring. Measures how many more or fewer of the bequeathed baserunners subsequent relievers allowed to score than would be expected from league average performance in those situations. I.e., a positive figure means the following relievers kept more of the bequeathed runners from scoring than expected, negative means more of the runners scored than expected.'); jpfl_definitions[278] = new Array('fra', '"Fair" runs against average. RA with inherited/bequeathed runners included.'); jpfl_definitions[279] = new Array('stars & scrubs chart', 'The Stars & Scrubs Chart represents the probability that a player will demonstrate a given level of performance over the course of his next five seasons.
\nIn particular, for hitters:\n\'Superstar\' performance represents an EqA of .300 or better.\n\'Star\' performance represents an EqA of between .280 and .300\n\'Regular\' performance represents an EqA of between .250 and .280\n\'Fringe\' performance represents an EqA of between .230 and .250\n\'Scrub\' performance represents an EqA worse than .230\n\'Drop\' represents the player\'s Drop Rate - the probability that the player will drop out of the league entirely.\n\nNote that these thresholds ARE adjusted for a player\'s defensive position. A shortstop would need an EqA of about .290 to be considered a \'Star\' performer, while a right fielder would need an EqA of .310.\n\nSimilarly, for pitchers:\n\n\'Superstar\' performance represents an EqERA of 3.25 or better.\n\'Star\' performance represents an EqERA of between 3.25 and 4.00\n\'Regular\' performance represents an EqERA of between 4.00 and 5.00\n\'Fringe\' performance represents an EqERA of between 5.00 and 5.50\n\'Scrub\' performance represents an EqERA worse than 5.50\n\'Drop\' represents Drop Rate - the probability that the player will drop out of the league entirely.\n\nA small adjustment is made for starters versus relief pitchers, analagous to the positional adjustment described above.'); jpfl_definitions[280] = new Array('spd', 'Abbreviation for Speed Score as used in PECOTA cards.'); jpfl_definitions[281] = new Array('career path analysis', 'Career Path Analysis is the name for a chart on a player\'s PECOTA card. The solid, curved lines represent a player\'s VORP at his 90th, 75th, 60th, 50th (Median), 40th, 25th and 10th percentile levels of performance over the course of his next five seasons. All of these lines appear in BLUE, except for a player\'s Median/50th percentile forecast, which appears in RED.\nThe dashed YELLOW line represents a player\'s Weighted Mean VORP forecast. Because of the Jeremy Giambi Effect (the correlation between quality of performance and playing time), the Weighted Mean forecast line will usually be somewhat more favorable than the Median forecast line, particularly for players with highly volatile forecasts (lots of \'upside\').\nNote that players who drop out of a player\'s comparables set are represented on the Career Path Anaylsis chart as having a VORP of 0.'); jpfl_definitions[282] = new Array('jeremy giambi effect', 'The Jeremy Giambi Effect is a name given to the correlation between playing time and quality of performance. The Jeremy Giambi Effect has important implications for understanding a player\'s PECOTA forecast.\nFollowing are Giambi\'s plate appearances and OPS for each year of his major league career\nYear PA OPS\n1998 70 .739\n1999 336 .741\n2000 302 .761\n2001 443 .841\n2002 397 .919\n2003 156 .696\nNote that the correlation between Giambi\'s PA and OPS is very strong (r=.72). He played more often when he played more effectively, and less so when he played less effectively. Eventually, his performance became so poor that he could no longer secure any major league playing time at all.\nBecause of the Jeremy Giambi Effect, players that perform better will make more contribution to his weighted mean forecast. Therefore, a player\'s weighted mean forecast may lead to a falsely optimistic portrait of his future, particularly for players with high drop and attrition rates.\nWe suggest paying the most attention to the Stars & Scrubs Chart, Career Path Anaylsis, and Five-Year WARP Forecast. All of these have a more sophisticated technique to account for the Jeremy Giambi Effect, by considering dropped comparables, but assigning them a value of zero.\n\n\n'); jpfl_definitions[283] = new Array('defense', 'Defense, as listed in a player\'s PECOTA card, provides the player\'s number of defensive games played, primary position, and fielding runs above average (FRAA) with a given team in a given season.\nAlthough only a player\'s primary defensive position is listed on a player\'s PECOTA card, the system considers his performance at secondary positions as well in making its forecasts.'); jpfl_definitions[284] = new Array('out of baseball', '\'Out of Baseball\' is the tag assigned to a player\'s five-year forecast when his Drop Rate in that season exceeds 66.7%. That is, we do not list a player\'s forecast line when it is substantially more likely than not that he will not be playing professional baseball.\nEven if a player receives the dreaded \'Out of Baseball\' tag, he can still accumulate residual WARP and VORP value based on those comparables that do remain in the league, as accounted for in his Valuation metrics.'); jpfl_definitions[285] = new Array('peak', 'PEAK refers to a series of metrics designed to evaluate a player\'s value over a consecutive six year period, as forecast by PECOTA.\nFor a player aged 25 or older, his PEAK score is simply the sum of his value in a particular cumulative category over the next six seasons.\nPlayers aged 24 or younger may receive an additional adjustement based on their age. This is determined by extrapolating a generic aging curve to the last two season\'s of the player\'s Seven-Year PECOTA Forecast, up until a player is aged 30. For example, a 22-year-old star outfield prospect might have projected WARP scores as follows:\nAge 22: 4.9\nAge 23: 4.5\nAge 24: 5.4\nAge 25: 6.0\nAge 26: 6.4\nAge 27: 6.1\nAge 28: 6.3 \nAge 29: 6.0 (extrapolated) \nAge 30: 5.8 (extrapolated) \n\n\nThe prospect\'s PEAK score is determined by summing the highest projected score over a consecutive six-year period. In this case, we would skip the prospect\'s age-22 through -24 seasons and his PEAK would be the higher projected period from Age 25 to Age 30, for a PEAK WARP of 36.6, rather than the total of 33.3 we would have gotten by merely summing his next six seasons of projected WARP.\n'); jpfl_definitions[286] = new Array('dxl', 'Days eXpected Lost -- used as an estimate of how many days a player is expected to miss due to an injury or illness. For starters, five days equals one start.'); jpfl_definitions[287] = new Array('upside', 'UPSIDE is determined by evaluating the performance of a player\'s PECOTA comparables. If a comparable player turned in a performance better than league average, including both his batting and fielding performance, then twice the number of runs he contributed above average is counted toward his UPSIDE. If the player was worse than league average, or he dropped out of the database, the performance is counted as zero.'); jpfl_definitions[288] = new Array('eqhar', 'Equivalent Hit Advancement Runs. The number of theoretical runs contributed by a baserunner or baserunners above what would have been expected given the number and quality of opportunities. EqHAR considers advancement from first on singles, second on singles, and first on doubles and is adjusted for park and based on a multi-year Run Expectancy Matrix.'); jpfl_definitions[289] = new Array('ga_opps', 'Ground advancement opportunities: number of times a baserunner was involved in one of the following situations:\n\nSet B = 1.36 (H-HR) + BB + HBP - .06 K
\nThis is your baserunner term.
\n\nPBR = HR + X * B * (B+HR) / TBF ,
\n\nwhere X is a constant set for the league, typically around .67.
\n\nPBRA is simply PBR/IP *9.
\n\nYou can also use expected hits allowed instead of actual hits allowed; I call that the PBRA2, and also adjust the innings for the difference between actual and expected hits.\n\nIf you are working with translated statistics, then you can use the per nine inning stats, with X=.695 and TBF=27 + H/9 + BB/9. You may see small differences between this calculation and what is displayed; HBP, which are included in the DTs even though they are not displayed, are the biggest reason for that.'); jpfl_definitions[500] = new Array('raweqa', 'The first step in putting together equivalent average.
\n\nIn its fullest form,
\n\nRawEQA = (H+TB+1.5*(BB+HBP+SB)+SH+SF-IBB/2) / (PA+SB+CS),
\n\nwhere PA=AB+BB+HBP+SH+SF. Feel free to drop any variable that isn\'t readily available.\n\n\n\n'); jpfl_definitions[501] = new Array('erd', 'Expected Return Date: An estimate of the date a player is expected to return to the lineup/rotation based on the current information. A player listed as "10/4" is done for the season; October 4th is the final day of the regular season.'); jpfl_definitions[502] = new Array('tjs', 'Tommy John Surgery'); jpfl_definitions[503] = new Array('brrp', 'Batting Runs above Replacement for the Position. This is, essentially, the equivalent average version of VORP. It is the number of equivalent runs this player had above what a replacement level player with the same mix of positions. '); jpfl_definitions[504] = new Array('siera', 'Skill-Interactive Earned Run Average estimates ERA through walk rate, strikeout rate and ground ball rate, eliminating the effects of park, defense and luck.'); jpfl_definitions[505] = new Array('tav', 'True Average (formerly Equivalent Average). A measure of total offensive value per out, with corrections for league offensive level, home park, and team pitching.'); jpfl_definitions[506] = new Array('mp/mw', 'Marginal Payroll Dollars per Marginal Win, a measure introduced by Doug Pappas which evaluates the efficiency of a club\'s front office by comparing its payroll and record to the performance it could expect to attain by fielding a roster of replacement-level players, all of whom are paid the major league minimum salary. The formula is:\n
\n(club payroll - (28 x major league minimum) / ((winning percentage - .300) x 162)
\n\nRecent MLB-wide MP/MW rates using end-of-year payrolls:
\n\n
2007: $2,460,984
\n2008: $2,625,267
\n2009: $2,652,167
'); jpfl_definitions[507] = new Array('per', 'Payroll Efficiency Rating, measure developed by Shawn Hoffman expressing the ratio of a team\'s estimated marginal revenue (derived from third-order win totals and market size factors) to its expected marginal revenue (derived from payroll). Draft pick value is also factored in to account for the increased value of a high first-round pick. The concept behind PER was introduced here though the name came later.\n\nPER\' is a variant of this which substitutes actual win totals for third-order win totals in the estimated marginal revenue calculation.'); jpfl_definitions[508] = new Array('nm', 'Team WARP total received from players with Non-Market salaries, i.e., players with minimum-salary service time or arbitration-eligible service time. This measure was introduced by Matt Swartz here.'); jpfl_definitions[509] = new Array('4c', 'A player capable of playing the four corners: first and third in the infield, right and left in the outfield.'); jpfl_definitions[510] = new Array('5c', 'A player who can play the four outfield and infield corners and catcher.'); jpfl_definitions[511] = new Array('mi', 'Someone who can play both middle infield positions, second and short.'); jpfl_definitions[512] = new Array('am', 'Team WARP total received from players with Auction Market salaries, i.e., players with free agent-eligible service time or players from Japan and other countries whose services required teams to bid through the posting process. This measure was introduced by Matt Swartz here.'); jpfl_definitions[513] = new Array('laim', 'League-Average Innings Muncher, a term coined by blogger Travis Nelson that is associated with adequate back-end rotation types.'); jpfl_definitions[514] = new Array('pythagenport', 'A modified form of Bill James\' Pythagorean formula previously used in our Adjusted Standings calculations, since replaced by Pythagenpat.'); jpfl_definitions[515] = new Array('watg', '"What About This Guy?"'); function jpfl_getStat ( inStatIndex ) { failMessage = "Stat definition could not be located."; inStatIndexLC = inStatIndex.toLowerCase(); for (i = 0; i < jpfl_definitions.length; i++) { if (jpfl_definitions[i][0] == inStatIndexLC) return jpfl_definitions[i][1]; } return failMessage; } function doTooltip(e, msg) { if ( typeof Tooltip == "undefined" || !Tooltip.ready ) return; Tooltip.show(e, msg); } function hideTip() { if ( typeof Tooltip == "undefined" || !Tooltip.ready ) return; Tooltip.hide(); }